Die Arbeit

Planung, End-to-End.

Fourteen years in demand and supply planning across SAP IBP, o9, OMP and S&OP — the tool changes; the monthly process has to change with it. Scroll the freight: road, sea, air.

Scroll to move the freight ↓

S&OP-/IBP-Prozessdesign

Aufbau des monatlichen Takts — Demand Review, Supply Review, Abgleich, Exec S&OP — damit Entscheidungen getroffen werden und Bestand haben.

Implementierung von SAP IBP & o9

Modellierung, Konfiguration und Rollout über Bedarfs-, Bestands- und Angebotsplanung — vom Blueprint bis zur Hypercare.

Netzwerk- & Bestandsoptimierung

Mehrstufige Bestände, Sicherheitsbestandspolitik und Netzwerkdesign, das Cash freisetzt, ohne den Service auszuhungern.

Bedarfsplanung & Prognosen

Statistische Baselines plus ein echter Konsensprozess — messbare Genauigkeit, weniger Brandbekämpfung flussabwärts.

Signal

Ein Nachfragemuster bricht vom Trend ab, bevor es jemand merkt.

Fails as a surprise: the break was visible in week one and noticed in week four.

Plan

S&OP gleicht die Einschätzung mit Supply und Kosten ab.

Fails as an argument: the room re-litigates the data instead of choosing between options.

Umsetzen

Aus dem Plan werden Bestellungen, Allokationen, Umlagerungen.

Fails as a handoff: the plan was right and the orders were old.

Lernen

Die Prognoseabweichung fließt in den nächsten Zyklus zurück.

Fails as a rerun: error never reaches the next baseline, so every quarter is the first quarter.

Bring the loop to your network.

Advisory on planning cycles, control towers and AI-assisted decision-making. One conversation first.

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Ergebnisse, keine Logos. ↓

Die Arbeit

Vom Signal ins Regal.

Four moves, one monthly loop. I've watched it hold for fourteen years, and I've watched it break at 11 p.m. on a cutoff night — demand signalled the break three weeks out, the plan reconciled cleanly, and Execute still shipped last month's allocation because the ERP couldn't ingest the new one. The loop rarely fails at the glamorous step. It fails at the handoff. That night is a composite — the shape of it is not.

S&OP-/IBP-Prozessdesign

Aufbau des monatlichen Takts — Demand Review, Supply Review, Abgleich, Exec S&OP — damit Entscheidungen getroffen werden und Bestand haben.

The calendar is the product. If the monthly cycle isn’t on a fixed cadence people can plan their own work around, no amount of tooling fixes the meeting.
Every review needs one number the room agrees is real before it argues about what to do next — consensus demand, not three spreadsheets with three different totals.
Escalation criteria get written down before the first exec S&OP, not improvised in the room when the first real conflict shows up.

Common failure mode: The most common shape this takes: a beautifully documented S&OP process binder that nobody follows past month two, because the design skipped the unglamorous part — who actually owns the number when demand and supply disagree, and what happens if they miss the deadline.

Implementierung von SAP IBP & o9

Modellierung, Konfiguration und Rollout über Bedarfs-, Bestands- und Angebotsplanung — vom Blueprint bis zur Hypercare.

Configuration should mirror how the business actually plans, not how the tool’s reference architecture assumes a generic company plans — the gap between those two is where most rollouts lose a year.
Hypercare is where the real requirements surface. Budget for it as a design phase, not a warranty period.
A planning model with more granularity than the business can act on is a maintenance liability, not a capability.

Common failure mode: The common failure: a technically correct blueprint that models the org chart instead of the decision flow — so the system produces a number nobody in the actual meeting knows how to challenge or override.

Netzwerk- & Bestandsoptimierung

Mehrstufige Bestände, Sicherheitsbestandspolitik und Netzwerkdesign, das Cash freisetzt, ohne den Service auszuhungern.

Safety stock is a policy decision, not a formula output — the formula just prices the policy you already chose (service level) in units of cash.
Multi-echelon only pays for itself if the network’s node-to-node lead times are trustworthy; garbage lead-time data makes a multi-echelon model worse than a single-echelon one, not better.
The right question is never "how do we hold less inventory" — it’s "which SKUs are we overpaying to protect, and which are we underprotecting."

Common failure mode: The common failure: an optimization run that frees up cash on paper by cutting safety stock uniformly, then gets quietly reversed SKU by SKU over the next two quarters as service failures roll in — because the cut wasn’t risk-weighted.

Bedarfsplanung & Prognosen

Statistische Baselines plus ein echter Konsensprozess — messbare Genauigkeit, weniger Brandbekämpfung flussabwärts.

A statistical baseline’s job is to be a credible starting point for a human argument, not a final answer — forecast accuracy is a property of the process around the number, not the algorithm.
Bias is a more useful diagnostic than error. A forecast that’s consistently 8% high is a coaching conversation; a forecast that’s randomly ±15% is a data problem.
The consensus meeting should change the number sometimes — if it never does, it’s a status update wearing a planning meeting’s clothes.

Common failure mode: The common failure: a forecasting tool upgrade sold as an accuracy fix, deployed against a consensus process that was never actually adjusting the baseline — so accuracy doesn’t move, because the tool was never the bottleneck.

Fails as a surprise: the break was visible in week one and noticed in week four.

Fails as an argument: the room re-litigates the data instead of choosing between options.

Fails as a handoff: the plan was right and the orders were old.

Fails as a rerun: error never reaches the next baseline, so every quarter is the first quarter.

Die Arbeit

Verlass dich nicht auf mein Wort — beweg die Stellschrauben.

Zwei Live-Tools, die zeigen, wie Planungs-Trade-offs sich wirklich verhalten. Keine Folien, kein Handwaving.

S&OP-Szenario-Simulator

Live

Beweg die Stellschrauben, die ein Planer wirklich kontrolliert — und sieh zu, wie die Trade-offs in Echtzeit mitgehen. Illustratives Modell.

Nachfrage vs. Plan0%

Produktionskapazität100%

Ziel-Servicelevel95%

Wiederbeschaffungszeit4 Wo.

Erwarteter Servicelevel90.5%

Kapazitätsauslastung100%

Bestandsindex (Plan = 100)100

Obsoleszenzrisiko0%

Ausgeglichener Betriebspunkt. Der Service hält sich nahe am Ziel, Bestand und Auslastung in einem gesunden Bereich.

What this hides: one SKU, one line, one season. Obsolescence here is a proxy, not a write-off model. The version I get paid for has a demand plan arguing with the statistical baseline — that argument is where the trade-off actually gets settled.

Bestandsoptimierung

Live

EOQ (wirtschaftliche Bestellmenge), Sicherheitsbestand und Bestellpunkt aus deinen eigenen Zahlen — die Mathematik hinter jeder Dispositionsregel.

Jahresbedarf

Bestellkosten ($)

Stückkosten ($)

Haltekosten %/Jahr

Ø Tagesbedarf

Beschaffungszeit (Tage)

Tagesbedarf σ

Servicelevel %

4,767

EOQ (Stück)

563

Sicherheitsbestand

5,183

Bestellpunkt

Bestellung von 4,767 Stück, etwa 25.2× pro Jahr. Nachbestellen, wenn der Bestand 5,183 erreicht — 563 Stück Sicherheitsbestand halten einen 97 %-Servicelevel über eine Beschaffungszeit von 14 Tagen.

What this hides: σ is daily demand variability, not forecast error — the production version uses forecast error, which is bigger and less polite. The z-value comes from a ten-row table, not the full normal curve. And 97% is only a target — check whether the safety stock is sized for the service level you actually promised.

Bullwhip-Effekt-Visualizer

Live

Ein kleines Zucken im Regal wird zum Sturm flussaufwärts. Sieh zu, wie sich die Nachfragevolatilität Stufe für Stufe verstärkt. Illustratives Modell.

Nachfragevolatilität (CV)20%

Lieferkettenstufen4

Kleine Nachfrageschwankungen im Regal verstärken sich zu großen Bestellschwankungen flussaufwärts — auf Stufe 4 (Regionaler DC) wird ein CV von 20 % zu einem Bestellindex von 173. Nachfragetransparenz, kürzere Durchlaufzeiten und geglättete Bestellungen dämpfen die Peitsche.

What this hides: each tier multiplies the swing by one-plus-CV — a teaching model, not a simulation. Real whips are gamed rationing and batched orders. The dampeners in the note are the ones that survive contact with a real order book.

02Die Arbeit

Ergebnisse, keine Logos.

Projekte sind anonymisiert — jedes mit Situation, meiner Rolle, was ich getan habe und einem Ergebnis als Spanne.

Fallstudien werden geladen…

Plans that hold look boring from the outside — one demand number, one cadence, a range instead of a promise. That's the whole trick.